WP4 - Forecasting marine systems

The ability to accurately predict the Mediterranean Sea and in the Italian seas waves, 3D fields of currents, temperature, salinity and biogeochemical parameters allows for an integrated monitoring system with the system of in situ and satellite observations.

The forecasting systems are able to provide support in the management of the marine environment and of emergencies (storms, floods, river floods, coastal erosion, accidental spillage of pollutants such as hydrocarbons, for example). This objective can be achieved by forecasting systems based on numerical models and data assimilation schemes capable of providing continuous information over time and space in the area in which they are implemented. The spatial (horizontal and vertical) and time resolution may vary depending on the characteristics of the forecasting system and its method of use. By varying the spatial and temporal resolution, as well as the physical processes resolved and assimilated data, these systems are able to reproduce the interactions between the different components of the "system of forecasting systems." Therefore both sea effects on the coast (high water, storm surges) and the effects that coastal waters have on offshore (pollution) can be described.

In order to correctly reproduce involved dynamics, oceanographic models require high-resolution meteorological forcing provided by adequate weather forecasting models both for global and limited area (Italian seas). For a complete management of the marine environment and its resources is therefore essential to the national community - especially for those who manage the territory – to have a marine forecasting system including the main variables such as circulation, waves, tides, biogeochemical parameters and their effects on the marine environment.

WP4 combines Mediterranean and the Italian seas forecasting system, integrated both within the European GMES forecasting system and among them in order to provide a useful and advanced monitoring and emergency management in the marine environment. WP4 is concerned to coordinate existing activities in this field (at the level of research organizations, institutions and universities) in order to create the basis for a "system of forecasting systems " acting in synergy and not in competition. This activity also coordinates with the Group of Operational Oceanography (GNOO).

• AZ1 - State of the art Analysis

• AZ2 - Design and architecture of development lines and forecasting system updating

• AZ3 - Development of system components

• AZ4 - Validation of forecasting systems using the observational network

WP leader Marina Tonani - INGV